Political Canadian: Ottawa tells Alberta to go freeze in the Dark.....in 2025, maybe

Ottawa is taking action on climate change by telling electricity producers to quit coal and to do so in a hurry. According to the Globe & Mail, Environment Minister Jim Prentice met with key energy executives from Alberta, Saskatchewan and Ontario to lay down the law. All three provinces rely heavily on coal-fired electricity generation. To quote the G&M,

Under Ottawa’s proposal, power companies would have to close their coal-fired facilities as they reach the end of their commercial life, largely over the next 10 to 15 years. The companies would not be allowed to refurbish the plants to extend their usefulness or replace them with new coal units, unless they include technology to capture the carbon dioxide and sequester it underground.

The government has announced a target to increase Canada’s reliance on non-emitting sources of power to 90 per cent by 2020, from the current level of 75 per cent.

The order from Ottawa does three things. First, it provides a somewhat firm deadline for closing existing coal-fired plants or adapting plants to significantly reduce emissions. According to the article, the government expects the life cycle of most coal-fired plants to end between 2020 and 2025. Second, it gives added incentive for power producers to invest in carbon capture and storage (CSS). Third, it places further emphasis on natural gas, co-generation and other technologies to replace coal, although it leaves open to question whether the natural gas reserves exist or what affect the new demand will have on the price of gas.

A key problem, especially in Alberta, is the pace of construction of co-generation, natural gas fired power plants, wind turbines and other power producing plants. Only 4,894 MW of electricity, excluding new coal-fired facilities, came online between 1998 and 2010, far below the almost 6,000 MW of electricity produced by burning coal today. Depending on how quickly the current coal-fired and other plants retire, energy produces would have to almost double the pace of construction to replace the current capacity provided by coal. (See tables below).

Current Electricity Generation by Type in Alberta